ANASTASIA SCREAMED IN VAIN

It is clear that Donald Trump, as well as his Attorney General, his former National Security Advisor, his Secretary of State, his Secretary of Commerce, his campaign manager, and a couple of his closest advisors (including his son in law) all have ties to Russian business and/or political interests. This is not in dispute.

It is also not in dispute that Trump et al are sensitive about their Kremlin connections. Trump’s defense is his usual shtick: call it fake news and blame the crooked media for repeating it. The Republican Party’s fallback position is that whatever Russian contacts there may have been were all perfectly innocent. Nothing to see here, move along please.

There’s just one teensy little problem with that argument. If their Russian contacts were innocent, why did those involved work so hard to keep them secret? Why would they construct an elaborate cover-up, even perjure themselves, if they did nothing wrong? Why take big risks for no reason? That doesn’t make sense.

Back in the 14th century, William of Ockham articulated a principle that has come to be known as Occam’s Razor: the simplest explanation that accounts for all the facts is probably the best explanation.

Applying Occam’s Razor to Trump’s Russian cover up, it appears to me that the simplest explanation is that Flynn, Sessions, et al were trying to prevent the disclosure of a scandal of some sort, either a major embarrassment or an actual crime. Here are some possibilities.

• Between the election and the inauguration, Trump’s people (Flynn in particular) told their Russian contacts that they’d reverse the sanctions that President Obama imposed in January. That would have been a violation of the Logan Act. My guess: highly likely, but not enough by itself to account for the entire cover up.
• During the campaign, Trump’s people had direct conversations with their Russian counterparts about the Putin-Assange Wikileaks attacks on Hillary Clinton. My guess: almost certain, and maybe enough to account for the cover up.
• Trump himself is in hock to Russian oligarchs, which is why he won’t release his tax returns. My guess: probable. I think the tax returns are the key to the whole scandal. As Deep Throat said during the Watergate scandal, “Follow the money.”
• Those rumors about compromising pictures of Trump and Russian prostitutes have some basis in fact. My guess: who knows? Would anyone be shocked to learn that Trump had “consorted” with call girls while in Russia on business? Not me.

Republicans just want the whole thing to go away, but that isn’t going to happen. President Obama’s old security team knows what’s going on, at least in broad outline. The FBI and CIA (agencies that Trump has already publicly disrespected) are figuring things out. British and Dutch intelligence agencies are involved. Investigative reporters (whom Trump has repeatedly insulted) are on the case, and they’re sensing blood in the water. They won’t be intimidated. Too many people have too many pieces of the puzzle, and none of the principle actors are committed to protecting Donald Trump.

And of course Russia knows everything about everyone involved. They aren’t committed to protecting Donald Trump either. When he outlives his usefulness, they’ll dump him, either by ghosting him or by releasing whatever kompromat they have.

We’ve seen these scandals unfold before. Information will continue to leak, first in a steady drip-drip-drip, and then in a flood. When the dam finally breaks, it’s not a good idea to be standing nearby.

And that brings us to those legendary statesmen, Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell. They’ve ignored Trump’s malfeasance for so long that they’ve forfeited any claim to respect. The question now is whether they’ve also lost their instinct for self-preservation.

The longer they wait to cut their losses, the more they risk turning into accomplices. If they were smart, they’d stop making transparently silly excuses for Comrade Trump and launch an immediate bipartisan investigation. Instead of trying to marginalize Democrats who want to participate, they’d make sure that Democrats played a prominent role in the investigation to help deflect the notion that the Republican establishment knifed Trump in the back. Appoint competent, independent investigators and stand back while they conduct their investigation.

Are they that smart? We’ll know soon.